The fact that the transition in Egypt is managed by the military and secular forces has tempered initial Israeli worries of a possible Islamist takeover or the abrogation of the peace treaty. The military have publicly pledged to adhere to the peace treaty and advocate maintaining close ties with the US. However, Israelis still have good reason to be concerned about the following:
The nature of relations in the face of regional challenges: Even though Egypt dictated a cold peace, in recent years Egypt and Israel developed close coordination in order to counter radical Islamism in the region, most noteworthy vis-a-vis Hamas rule in Gaza, which both have considered a threat to their national security. All of this coordination is now under question. Strong anti-Israel sentiments in the Egyptian public - long fostered by Mubarak's regime - are likely to express themselves in the policy of any future Egyptian government, and Egypt-in-transition will be unable to play the same significant supportive role in the peace process. This is all the more true if the Muslim Brotherhood, who object to the very concept of peace with Israel, become part of a ruling coalition.
Deteriorating security situation in the Sinai: The power vacuum in Cairo has allowed for a dangerous deterioration in the security situation in the Sinai, manifesting itself in a series of violent clashes between Bedouin elements and Egyptian security forces. In one incident, an armed group from Gaza was reportedly arrested on its way to attack Israeli targets. Smuggling through the Egypt-Gaza border has also intensified. Israel sees mounting terror threats from Sinai.
The nature of bilateral commercial relations: Almost one-fifth of Israel's electric power generation has been imported from Egypt as natural gas. The flow of gas through a northern Sinai pipeline was stopped on 5 February after the nearby Egypt-Jordan natural gas pipeline was sabotaged. There were repeated delays in its resumption, leading Israelis to suspect that political, and not just technical or security considerations were involved. The question poses itself: what does this mean for future energy, economic and trade relations?
Whilst the US, Europe and the international community had little if any say in the uprising itself, they have an important role to play in ensuring that transition in Egypt is directed towards democracy, maintains peaceful relations with Israel and does not give a free pass to radical Islamist forces in the region.
