How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic
Below is a complete listing of the articles in "How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic," a series by Coby Beck containing responses to the most common skeptical arguments on global warming. There are four separate taxonomies; arguments are divided by:
Individual articles will appear under multiple headings and may even appear in multiple subcategories in the same heading.
Stages of Denial
1. There's nothing happening
a. Inadequate evidence
§ There is no evidence
§ One record year is not global warming
§ The temperature record is simply unreliable
§ One hundred years is not enough
§ Glaciers have always grown and receded
§ Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect
§ Mauna Loa is a volcano
§ The scientists aren't even sure
b. Contradictory evidence
§ It's cold today in Wagga Wagga
§ Antarctic ice is growing
§ The satellites show cooling
§ What about mid-century cooling?
§ Global warming stopped in 1998
§ But the glaciers are not melting
§ Antarctic sea ice is increasing
§ Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
§ Sea level in the Arctic is falling
§ Some sites show cooling
c. No consensus
§ Global warming is a hoax
§ There is no consensus
§ Position statements hide debate
§ Consensus is collusion
§ Peiser refuted Oreskes
2. We don't know why it's happening
a. Models don't work
§ We cannot trust unproven computer models
§ The models don't have clouds
§ If aerosols are blocking the sun, the south should warm faster
§ Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
b. Prediction is impossible
§ We can't even predict the weather next week
§ Chaotic systems are not predictable
c. We can't be sure
§ The modelers won't tell us how confident they are in the models
§ Hansen has been wrong before
§ If we can't understand the past, how can we understand the present?
§ The scientists aren't even sure
§ They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
3. Climate change is natural
a. It happened before
§ It was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum
§ The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
§ Greenland used to be green
§ Global warming is nothing new!
§ The hockey stick is broken
§ Vineland was full of grapes
b. It's part of a natural change
§ Current global warming is just part of a natural cycle
§ Mars and Pluto are warming too
§ CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
§ The null hypothesis says global warming is natural
§ Climate is always changing
§ Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
§ The CO2 rise is natural
§ Today's warming is just a recovery from the Little Ice Age
c. It's not caused by CO2
§ Why don't they ever mention water vapor?
§ Water vapor's greenhouse effect overwhelms CO2
§ There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
§ Mars and Pluto are warming too
§ CO2 lags, not leads
§ What about mid-century cooling?
§ Geological history does not support CO2's importance
§ Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
§ It's the sun, stupid
4. Climate change is not bad
a. The effects are good
§ A warmer world will be better
b. The effects are minor
§ Any ice melt will just go into groundwater
c. Change is normal
5. Climate change can't be stopped
a. Too late
§ Kyoto is ineffective
b. It's someone else's problem
§ Why should the U.S. join Kyoto?
§ The U.S. is a net CO2 sink
c. Economically infeasible
§ Action on global warming is suicide
Scientific Topics
1. Temperature
o There is no evidence
o The temperature record is simply unreliable
o One hundred years is not enough
o Current global warming is just part of a natural cycle
o A warmer world will be better
o It's cold today in Wagga Wagga
o Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect
o The satellites show cooling
o Global warming stopped in 1998
o They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
o Some sites show cooling
2. Atmosphere
3. Extreme events
a. Temperature records
§ One record year is not global warming
§ It's cold today in Wagga Wagga
b. Storms
c. Droughts
4. Cryosphere
. Glaciers
§ Glaciers have always grown and receded
§ But the glaciers are not melting
a. Sea ice
§ Antarctic sea ice is increasing
b. Ice sheets
§ Antarctic ice is growing
§ Greenland used to be green
§ Any ice melt will just go into groundwater
5. Oceans
o Sea level in the Arctic is falling
6. Modeling
. Scenarios
§ Kyoto is ineffective
§ Hansen has been wrong before
a. Uncertainties
§ We can't even predict the weather next week
§ Chaotic systems are not predictable
§ We cannot trust unproven computer models
§ The modelers won't tell us how confident they are in the models
§ The models don't have clouds
7. Climate forcings
. Solar influences
§ Mars and Pluto are warming too
§ It's the sun, stupid
a. Greenhouse gases
§ Why don't they ever mention water vapor?
§ Water vapor's greenhouse effect overwhelms CO2
§ There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
§ CO2 lags, not leads
§ CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
§ What about mid-century cooling?
§ Geological history does not support CO2's importance
§ Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
§ Mauna Loa is a volcano
§ The CO2 rise is natural
§ Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
§ The US is a net CO2 sink
§ Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
b. Aerosols
§ What about mid-century cooling?
§ If aerosols are blocking the sun, the south should warm faster
8. Paleo climate
. Holocene
§ It was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum
§ The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
§ Greenland used to be green
§ The hockey stick is broken
§ Vineland was full of grapes
§ Today's warming is just a recovery from the Little Ice Age
a. Ice ages
§ CO2 lags, not leads
§ Global warming is nothing new!
b. Geologic history
§ A warmer world will be better
§ Geological history does not support CO2's importance
§ Climate is always changing
§ Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
§ If we can't understand the past, how can we understand the present?
9. Scientific process
o Global warming is a hoax
o There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
o There is no consensus
o The null hypothesis says global warming is natural
o Position statements hide debate
o If we can't understand the past, how can we understand the present?
o The scientists aren't even sure
o Consensus is collusion
o Peiser refuted Oreskes
Types of Argument
1. Uninformed
o There is no evidence
o One record year is not global warming
o One hundred years is not enough
o There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
o A warmer world will be better
o Action on global warming is suicide
o There is no consensus
o We cannot trust unproven computer models
2. Misinformed
o It was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum
o The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
o Antarctic ice is growing
o CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
o Greenland used to be green
o The satellites show cooling
o Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
o It's the sun, stupid
o The U.S. is a net CO2 sink
o But the glaciers are not melting
o Antarctic sea ice is increasing
o They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
o Vineland was full of grapes
3. Cherry Picking
o It's cold today in Wagga Wagga
o Antarctic sea ice is growing
o The satellites show cooling
o Global warming stopped in 1998
o Antarctic sea ice is increasing
o Vineland was full of grapes
o Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
o The sea level in the Arctic is falling
o Some sites show cooling
4. Urban Myths
o The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
o CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
o Greenland used to be green
o Hansen has been wrong before
o They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
o Vineland was full of grapes
5. FUD
o The temperature record is simply unreliable
o Glaciers have always grown and receded
o Why don't they ever mention water vapor?
o Water vapor's greenhouse effect overwhelms CO2
o Current global warming is just part of a natural cycle
o Kyoto is ineffective
o Mars and Pluto are warming too
o It's cold today in Wagga Wagga
o CO2 lags, not leads
o There is no consensus
o Antarctic ice is growing
o Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect
o We can't even predict the weather next week
o Chaotic systems are not predictable
o What about mid-century cooling?
o The null hypothesis says global warming is natural
o Geological history does not support CO2's importance
o Climate is always changing
o Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
o Mauna Loa is a volcano
o Global warming is nothing new!
o The CO2 rise is natural
o The hockey stick is broken
o Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
o The models don't have clouds
o Global warming stopped in 1998
o If we can't understand the past, how can we understand the present?
o If aerosols are blocking the sun, the south should warm faster
o The scientists aren't even sure
o Antarctic sea ice is increasing
o Peiser refuted Oreskes
o Vineland was full of grapes
o Observations Show Climate Sensitivity Is Not Very High
o Sea level in the Arctic is falling
o Today's warming is just a recovery from the Little Ice Age
6. Non Scientific
o Global warming is a hoax
o Kyoto is ineffective
o Why should the U.S. join Kyoto?
o The modelers won't tell us how confident they are in the models
o Hansen has been wrong before
o Position statements hide debate
o The scientists aren't even sure
o Consensus is collusion
o They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
7. Underdog Theories
8. Crackpottery
o Any ice melt will just go into groundwater
Levels of Sophistication
1. Silly
o There is no evidence
o Global warming is a hoax
o One record year is not global warming
o Action on global warming is suicide
o Mars and Pluto are warming too
o Mauna Loa is a volcano
o Any ice melt will just go into groundwater
o The modelers won't tell us how confident they are in the models
2. Naive
o One hundred years is not enough
o Glaciers have always grown and receded
o Why should the U.S. join Kyoto?
o It's cold today in Wagga Wagga
o CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
o We can't even predict the weather next week
o We can not trust unproven computer models
o The satellites show cooling
o Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
o The models don't have clouds
o Global warming stopped in 1998
o It's the sun, stupid
o If we can't understand the past, how can we understand the present?
o The scientists aren't even sure
o Vineland was full of grapes
o Some sites show cooling
3. Specious
o The temperature record is simply unreliable
o Why don't they ever mention water vapor?
o There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
o Current global warming is just part of a natural cycle
o It was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum
o The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
o A warmer world will be better
o Kyoto is ineffective
o CO2 lags, not leads
o There is no consensus
o Antarctic ice is growing
o Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect
o Greenland used to be green
o What about mid-century cooling?
o The null hypothesis says global warming is natural
o Geological history does not support CO2's importance
o Climate is always changing
o Global warming is nothing new!
o The CO2 rise is natural
o Historically, CO2 never causes temperature change
o Hansen has been wrong before
o Position statements hide debate
o The U.S. is a net CO2 sink
o But the glaciers are not melting
o If aerosols are blocking the sun, the south should warm faster
o Antarctic sea ice is increasing
o Consensus is collusion
o They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
o Peiser refuted Oreskes
o Vineland was full of grapes
4. Scientific
o
A